Q-Resilience — Qatar National Food Security Platform

Nat. Food Security Index

Domestic PSI (yr 10)

crop production score

Blended water cost

$/m³ (baseline $0.91)

Avg yield loss

% vs. baseline

Soil EC (blended)

dS/m (baseline ~3.2)

Climate stress factors

Rainfall decline0%

Qatar baseline 75mm/yr → Extreme: −63% (28mm/yr)

↳ Irrigation deficit: +0% ↳ GW salinity: +0.0 dS/m

PET increase (temperature)0%

Baseline PET 2,200mm | Extreme: +18%

↳ Water demand: +0% ↳ EC concentration: +0.0 dS/m

Additional irrigation cut+0%

Extra reduction above rainfall-driven shortfall

Additional GW EC rise+0.0

Extra salinity beyond rainfall-driven rise (dS/m)

Energy & water supply mix

Energy price increase0%

Raises desalination cost above $1.50/m³ (20% of supply)

Renewable energy adoption0%

Offsets energy shock on desalination cost

TWW expansion0%

Shifts supply from GW (high EC) to TWW → lowers EC

Water supply mix (yr 10)

GW 75% Desal 20% TWW 5%

Remediation interventions

Soil remediation0%

Reduces effective EC above each crop's salinity threshold

Water use efficiency0%

Reduces m³/ha water requirement & offsets PET demand rise

NFSI = 0.12 × DomesticPSI + 0.88 × ImportScore. Qatar domestic production covers ~12% of national food needs; imports 88%. Cascade model: Rainfall drives irrigation deficit (×0.55) and GW EC rise (×1.8 dS/m). PET drives water demand (+60%) and EC concentration.

National Food Security Index — 10-year trajectory

NFSI (food security) Domestic PSI Moderate (70) Critical (50)

Select a scenario or adjust sliders above.

Crop-level PSI — year 10 | EC & irrigation adjusted

Tomato 300 ha

ECt 2.5 dS/m

Cucumber 250 ha

ECt 2.5 dS/m

Bell pepper 250 ha

ECt 1.8 dS/m

Eggplant 200 ha

ECt 3.0 dS/m

Stress driver contributions — year 10

Food Security at Shock Peak

lowest NFSI during shock

Reserve depletion

months until exhausted

Days to critical (50)

from shock onset

Recovery year

return to pre-shock NFSI

Import gap (peak)

% supply shortfall

Domestic cover ratio

% needs from own prod.

Shock scenario type

Shock onset (year)Year 3

When the shock event begins in the 10-year horizon

Shock duration3 months

How long the acute disruption lasts

Import disruption severity0%

% of normal food imports blocked during the shock

Energy infrastructure damage0%

Reduces desalination capacity → raises water cost & cuts irrigation

Domestic production disruption0%

Direct damage to farms, labour, or supply chains

Strategic reserves & resilience

Strategic food reserves3 months

Current national reserve buffer available to fill import gap

Reserve coverage during shock--

Supply diversification0%

Pre-positioned alternative suppliers — accelerates import recovery

Emergency protocol activation0%

National continuity protocols — reduces severity and speeds recovery

Domestic production boost0%

Emergency acceleration of domestic output to offset import gap

Food supply composition — at shock peak

Domestic production Imports (flowing) Import gap Covered by reserves

Food security trajectory — with shock event

NFSI (no shock baseline) NFSI with shock Reserve-buffered floor Critical (50)

Configure a shock scenario using the controls on the left.

Shock event timeline

Key milestones

Shock onset

Year 3, Month 1

Peak supply disruption

Reserve exhaustion (if depleted)

NFSI crosses critical threshold

Shock resolved / imports resume

Return to pre-shock NFSI

Policy implications — highest-impact interventions under current shock

	Intervention	NFSI gain	Impact
Configure shock scenario first.

NFSI with shock = 0.12 × DomesticPSI × (1 − dom_disruption) + 0.88 × ImportScore × (1 − import_disruption) + ReserveBuffer. Import recovery ramps back over time governed by diversification and protocol levers. Energy infrastructure damage cascades into irrigation and desalination capacity. Based on Qatar import dependency ~88% (FAO / QSA estimates).

Scenario comparison — current vs. normal

Metric	Normal	Current	Change
Run a scenario to compare.

Policy lever effectiveness — PSI gain at 50% deployment

Current stress fixed — how much does each lever improve NFSI?

	Intervention	+NFSI	Impact
Run a scenario first.

Crop-level economics — year 10 | per hectare

Crop	Area (ha)	Yield (t/ha)	Yield loss%	EC excess	Revenue/ha	Cost/ha	Profit/ha	PSI

Cascade yield model

IrrDeficit = RainDecline × 0.55
ΔEC_rain = RainDecline × 1.8 dS/m
ΔEC_pet = PET% × 0.8 dS/m
Y_irr = Ym × (1 − Ky × (1 − IrrigFrac))
Y_final = Y_irr × (1 − β × max(0, EC − ECt))

PSI & NFSI formula

CropPSI = 100 − (0.6×YieldLoss + 0.4×EconLoss)
DomPSI = Σ (AreaShare × CropPSI)
NFSI = 0.12×DomPSI + 0.88×ImportScore

Stable ≥85 | Moderate 70–84
High risk 50–69 | Critical <50

Water cost — blended $0.91/m³

GW 75% × $0.75 = $0.5625
Desal 20% × $1.50 = $0.300
TWW 5% × $0.90 = $0.045
Blended = $0.91/m³

Energy shock → Desal share only.

Shock NFSI model

ImportScore = 100×(1−disruption)
+ ReserveBuffer coverage
EnergyDamage → IrrigCut + DesalCost↑
Recovery: ramp over duration governed
by diversification + protocol levers

Year-by-year output — current climate scenario

Year	NFSI	Dom. PSI	Import score	Yield loss%	Soil EC	Water $/m³	Irr supply%	GW EC

Primary drivers

Rainfall decline
PET / temperature rise
Energy price shock
Conflict / supply shock

Auto-cascade effects

↓ Irrigation supply
↑ Groundwater EC
↑ Crop water demand
↓ Import availability

Intervention levers

Renewables → desal cost
TWW expansion → lower EC
Soil remediation → EC buffer
Reserves → shock buffer
Diversification → fast recovery